Why climate change could soon hit your wallet at the grocery store

Eggs. Bacon. Orange juice. Even cream cheese.

Could strawberries be next? What about lettuce, almonds and coffee?

During and after the COVID-19 pandemic, some foods disappeared from local supermarket shelves or saw massive price increases. A host of factors were blamed for heaping pressure on food prices and supplies: higher fertilizer costs, increased energy prices stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, political instability in some areas, and supply-chain issues tied to the pandemic.

In late summer 2022 federal officials reported food prices had risen more than 11% over the previous 12 months, the largest annual increase since May 1979.

But officials are warning a new culprit is already having a growing impact on food supplies and prices nationally and around the world − climate change. And, just as the busy summer season of outdoor grilling and vacations starts with Memorial Day, its impacts can already be seen in North Carolina supermarkets.

Food supplies have always been subject to vagaries of Mother Nature, suffering when there's not enough rain or even when there's too much to wilting when temperatures are too hot or too cold.

Human actions, from war to political instability, also can impact the availability of food. Economics, supply-chain issues and labor woes also can stunt crop yields.

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But Maggie Monast, an environmental economist with Environmental Defense Fund, said the U.S.'s food supply system is large and generally quite robust.

"These are big systems and can generally absorb some shocks," she said. "But as we’ve seen in our grocery cart, disruption is going to be the name of the game from now on."

As severe weather events increase in frequency and strength as the world warms, cracks and signs of fragility are starting to appear in the U.S.'s massive food industrial complex.

California, which grows about half of the country's fruit and vegetables, has recently whiplashed from a nearly decade-long severe drought that stunted crops to record-setting rainfall that has flooded huge areas of the state's farm-rich Central Valley. Flooded crops are a total loss to farmers because federal food safety rules mandate that any edible portion of a plant exposed to floodwaters must be destroyed.

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Officials warn that the ripple effects on the prices of vegetables and citrus will eventually reach the supermarket aisle as many farmers lose this year's harvest and are unable to plant for next year.

Almonds, which are almost all grown in the Golden State, are already reflecting the impacts of California's extremely wet winter. In March, prices of the nuts soared 33% from February, marking the largest monthly increase since November 2014, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In Florida, the devastation from last year's Hurricane Ian had an immediate impact on orange juice prices, with experts warning of long-term impacts due to the storm's damage to the state's citrus belt.

Both the California drought and flooding and the devastation from Ian were amplified by climate change, scientists say.

But it is warming temperatures that officials say will have the biggest overall impact on farmers, agricultural products, livestock and eventually consumer food prices as temperature extremes lead to crop damage, water shortages, increased health issues for workers, and added risk from pests and diseases.

Monast said a recent EDF study, taking a middle-of-the-road climate scenario forecasting a 4.3 degree temperature rise by 2050, would cost Florida strawberry farmers a 17% decline in yields and a 10% loss in income per acre.

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"That would put a lot of farmers out of business or force them to adapt or even look at growing other crops," she said.

North Carolina has warmed by about 1 degree in the past century, with 2010-20 the warmest decade on record in the state's history, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The state's warming trend is expected to continue and potentially increase in coming decades, depending on future emissions of heat-trapping gases.

But Monast said there's still time to adapt in the face of the climate changes we know are coming − for officials, farmers and consumers.

For federal and state officials, promoting resilience instead of simply paying farmers to rebuild after a disaster offers avenues to help the agricultural industry to adapt and prepare for what's coming instead of doing things the same old way − with the same results when something bad does happen.

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Those climate-smart practices can include helping farmers pay to use cover crops in between food crops to protect the soil and reduce the amount of herbicides they need and installing temporary plastic structures, often called high tunnels, to help extend the growing season and protect high-value crops.

"We can't keep going back to the way it was," Monast said. "Those two flooding events coming in such quick succession," she added, referring to 2016's Hurricane Matthew and 2018's Hurricane Florence, "did change the conversation in North Carolina when it came to resilience and we need to continue that momentum."

North Carolina's agricultural losses from Florence were estimated to be at least $1.1 billion, according to state officials.

Consumers can help by supporting their local farmers and food cooperatives and trying different products even if it's not the specific variety or color they've grown up accustomed to buying.

And farmers can help themselves by willing to adopt different growing practices, whether in where and how they grow or even adding diversity in what crops to plant.

"No one pays more attention to the weather than a farmer, and they are noticing the changes they’ve seen during their careers," Monast said. "They also pay close attention to what other farmers are doing, because the best ally of a farmer is another farmer."

Reporter Gareth McGrath can be reached at [email protected] or @GarethMcGrathSN on Twitter. This story was produced with financial support from 1Earth Fund and the Prentice Foundation. The USA TODAY Network maintains full editorial control of the work.